Export prices slide Just Assumption?

I do not know how many times the government's budget assumptions touch. Lately even the frequency almost weekly. It's stifling the development planning process in our country. World economic crisis was very real, but we are still preoccupied with the assumption that changes in the national budget. One and a half months into the year 2009 passed, whenever that started realizing and development spending or stimulus fund to cushion the economic slowdown and the threat of explosion termination (dismissal).

If previous years are often the culprit so quantities change the state budget is the fluctuation of oil prices, now spread to almost all macroeconomic quantities. Last week, the government berancang hoist a run down the assumption of growth in exports and economic growth.

Not be denied that the world economic growth from becoming worse day by day. World Economic Outlook published by the International Monetary Fund in October 2008 edition to include projections of economic growth (output) of the world in 2009 amounted to 3.0 percent. However, a month later corrected to 2.2 percent. In late January, the IMF re-make corrections, which quite drastically, to only 0.5 percent.

In line with the correction of global economic growth projections, the projected growth in world trade in 2009 were corrected, from 4.1 percent in October 2008 to 2.0 percent in November 2008, and minus 2.8 percent, in January 2009. From the comparison it looks a correction in world trade growth sharper than the correction in world economic growth.

The government seems to respond the trend of deterioration in economic growth and world trade by correcting the proposed export growth assumptions and gross domestic product in the 2009 budget. Dikerek export growth fell from 5.9 percent in early January and then to 5 percent by the end of January and finally 2.5 percent in the first week in February 2009. In fact, the government has to calculate the export growth of only 1 percent. When compared with the growth of exports in 2008 amounted to 13.7 percent, meaning Indonesia's export performance this year will decline very sharply.

If the world economy continued to experience further deterioration than expected today, our export growth could be even worse, say experienced negative growth. In other words, the export volume this year will be lower than last year. Does the government then will be corrected once again its economic growth target?

Actually, the export slump will not affect economic growth at a time when imports had come down in proportion. In fact, contrary to the experience of the crisis in 1998 and recent events in China, imports decline more severe than the decrease in exports resulting in the improvement of trade balance and current account (current account). Furthermore, the decline in import growth more sharply than the export growth actually contributed positively to economic growth.